According to EDAR analyst Jesse Divinch, the PS4 and the Xbox 720 will combine for about 11 million sales by the end of 2014. Those numbers are actually not unreasonable, if perhaps a bit low.
The PS4 and Xbox 720 will step on eachother’s toes over their launch period. Anywhere from 3-5 million units combines seems to be within the realm of possibility, unless the Xbox 720 dazzles us with some amazing innovation. As for 2014, I’d say 6-8 million units is a bit on the low side. 10-12 million seems a bit more accurate in my mind.
Basically Divinch is predicting a moderate contraction in the hardware market, in terms of Sony and Microsoft, but at the same time seems optimistic.
“EEDAR is forecasting over 11 million consumers to transition to the next-generation by the end of 2014 (PS4 and Xbox 720). That’s 11 million consumers who are willing to spend money to consume interactive entertainment. Those are 11 million of the elusive ‘Whales’ we continually hunt in the mobile market. By the end of 2017, this will balloon to over 50 million consumers, all willing to spend money to consume quality content. It’s a market that independent developers shouldn’t ignore and one that the console manufacturers must foster to gain independent support.”
Nice that some analysts seem to grasp the difference between the hardcore and mobile markets.