Today the iPhone 5 launches and it has been a BIG success. Over 2 million devices were sold within the first 24 hours that the phone was available for pre-order. This number being over twice that of the iPhone 4S’ pre-sale orders within the first 24 hours. It’s even predicted that Apple will sell over 6.5 million iPhone 5’s this weekend. People really love the iPhone line it seems.
However, I’m not sure if you all have noticed a pattern or whether the shiny new phones each year keep you “blinded by the light”. Apple really hasn’t done anything innovative. Sure, they’ve made a quality device that works well, except for a few software mishaps, but Android is catching up fast and the iPhone line is coming past its prime.
Analyst Kevin Smithen of Macquarie Securities is not seeing the trend I spoke of, but he is seeing a trend. Smithen says that the number of people using smartphones is predicted to be 140 million by the end of this year. This number will represent 54% of all mobile users, and is predicted again to breach 70% next year. Smithen claims that 70% is the magic number, saying that this is where the decline in most telecommunication services started.
The smartphone market, and particularly the iPhone market, will slow next year after very strong shipments of the next iPhone through year-end. -Kevin Smithen
Other factors that will contribute to the decline of the iPhone are more restrictive upgrade measures. Mobile carriers have been beaten up so to speak by the last iPhone launch and so raised activation fees. Which CNN’s David Goldman said lead consumers to adopt to “tiered plans” like ATT’s shared data plan and also making contractual periods much longer.
Quite frankly, I would be happy to see the iPhone sales decline. Apple doesn’t deserve them, especially since they claim to be “innovative”. However, that will also mean less smartphone sales and Google is almost catching up to Apple. I’d hate to see them quit the race now.
What do you all think? Is the iPhone reaching its peak? Will sales of the iPhone decline over the years? What will it take for you to buy an iPhone 6?